The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) has asked the government to reinstate the Covid sick pay rebate in order to help small firms support those needing to self-isolate, relaunch the workplace testing initiative and increase the business rates discount for the hardest-hit firms to 100 per cent. It’s clear a “lockdown by stealth” will affect businesses – but in the absence of formal measures, the BCC has called for support packages such as grants for those worst affected or a VAT cut targeted at the hospitality sector. “One thing we have to watch out for quite closely here is, is the impact on… consumer confidence,” says Thiru. The problem, says Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), is that spikes in Covid cases tend to change consumer behaviour – particularly around Christmas, when people isolate “just in case” in order to avoid catching the virus and being unable to see family on the day itself. Future income from ticket sales has also fallen 27 per cent, it says. UK Hospitality has predicted turnover for December, the sector’s most lucrative month, will be 40 per cent lower than usual, while the Music Venue Trust says attendance at gigs has fallen by 23 per cent in the week since Plan B was announced, leading to a 27 per cent fall in gross income. Plan B – which mandates mask-wearing in shops, Covid passes for large venues and events, and which asks people to “work from home if you can” – has already had an effect on hospitality, industry sources say. We think we’ve got the right balance through Plan B and our big uptick in boosters.” Which sectors are worst affected in a “lockdown by default”? On Monday (13 December), his official spokesman said: “We’ve always sought to keep face-to-face schooling open and have only restricted it in cases when there’s the direst public health emergency. The Prime Minister has also said that closing schools would be a last resort. So far, the government has resisted closing schools, telling local authorities that schools should not end the term early for Christmas. The government has been emphatic that it is doing everything it can to avoid a Christmas lockdown – but with the number of Omicron cases now doubling every two days, Professor Neil Ferguson, whose modelling persuaded the government to introduce the first lockdown in 2020, has said it is likely to become the primary variant by Christmas. Will a lockdown be announced before Christmas? Critics of the measures say that this amounts to a “lockdown by stealth” – where the government hasn’t actually tightened restrictions, but consumer behaviour changes and businesses suffer. The Plan B measures, which were narrowly passed in a vote in parliament last night, are designed to prevent another lockdown – but hospitality businesses are reporting that the number of people cancelling bookings has already rocketed. Despite the introduction of “Plan B” measures and an accelerated booster programme, the number of Covid cases in the UK is rising steeply: yesterday (14 December) it was reported another 59,610 people tested positive, bringing the weekly total up to 377,601, a 12 per cent increase on the previous week. Boris Johnson will hold a press conference at 5pm today on the growing number of Omicron infections.
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